This campaign for the 5th Congressional District looks rather predictable. Kirkland will win the primary. Here’s why and how.

The Chester Vote

As usual, there won’t be any other candidates coming into Chester to campaign. Kirkland is in a unique position to get all the Chester votes. Those loyal and obedient to him are a given, and the folks who don’t want him as mayor will be thrilled to vote him into congress and out of City Hall.

The County Vote

If there’s only one black candidate, there’s a good chance many of the black voters in the county will get his vote. A united block of black Delaware County voters will easily outnumber a multiple candidate split of the white vote. (Yes, it can come down to something as simple as race).

The Margo Davidson unknown

If she decides to run, it would split the black vote among Kirkland and her, but she can’t get the Chester vote so they’d both end up losing. (Maybe a Bob Brady kinda back room deal that really didn’t happen but folks went to jail anyway can be worked out between the two of them).

The General Election

With the county leaning Democratic, would they vote for Kirkland over the Republican candidate. That’s where we’d see Delaware County’s true colors.